The USDCAD broke below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 21 low at 1.3132, and the June 2023 low at 1.31157. The break led to a move to a new low for the year and low going back to September 2022 at 1.3106.
However, the price has bounced back and trades near 1.3124.
What would now keep the sellers firmly in control?
Stay below the 50% at 1.3132 would be a bearish play, but I could see risk up to 1.3143 in the short term (the low from yesterday's trade). If the price were to start trading more above that level, the break below the 2023 low, the break below the 50% retracement, in the break below yesterday's low would all have failed. There probably would be more upside probing.
Absent that, and the sellers remain more in control.
