On the daily chart below for USDCAD, we can see that after breaking the strong support at 1.3664, the pair just melted for hundreds of pips. We got a bounce recently as bad US data started to give the market recession vibes and the US Dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term is the go-to currency in case a recession unfolds.

The NFP report last Friday surprised again though showing strong labour market data. We’ve got some choppy price action afterwards due to Easter Holidays. Today is the US CPI Day, and the market is unlikely to move much ahead of it.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the recent bounce stalled right at the previous swing level at 1.3553 where we also had the confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The moving averages have crossed to the downside again after the price rejected the resistance, so the sellers are in control for now.

The first natural target should be the low at 1.3406 with more to come in case the sellers manage to break below it. Today’s data is likely to decide the next big move. A miss to the expectations should favour the sellers, while a beat should give the buyers some control.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can see a nice setup for the sellers in case the price pulls back to the 1.3480 level where we have the trendline, the swing level resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

All this confluence in the same spot makes that zone a strong resistance and gives the sellers a nice barrier where they can lean onto and have a defined risk just above it. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price to break above this strong area to start piling in and target the resistance at 1.3553.