The USDCHF is down -1.82% this week or -165 pips. That is the biggest move lower in the pair since the week of November 7 when the pair fell -5.3%. The decline this week would be the 4th week in a row lower. That 4 week run took the price from 0.9317 during the week of March 20 to the low today of 0.8859 (-4.91% or -458 pips). Since March 2, the price has moved from 0.9440 or -581 pips or -6.15% (from the high to the low).
Looking at the daily chart below, the price today moved below the May and June 2022 lows between 0.8925 and 0.8929 (see red numbered circles). On the downside, the next target comes between a swing area between 0.8622 and 0.8637 (see green number circles).
The current price trades between those levels at 0.8883. The low price today reached 0.8859.
Drilling down to the hourly chart below,
- the price high this week moved up into a swing area between 0.9115 and 0.91264 during Monday's trade. That move also extended above the 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart below) for a few hours before rotating back to the downside.
- On Tuesday, the price fell below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) and stayed below that moving average line on the intraday correction.
- On Wednesday, the price found sellers within a swing area between 0.9027 and 0.90358 (see green number circles on the chart below) and fell to the downside - breaking below the low from last week in the process.
- Today, the price fell below a downward sloping trend line and we saw momentum selling continue as dollar selling dominated.
Sellers simply stepped down from level to level this week.
The last break on the hourly was below the downward sloping trend line (see red numbered circles). That broken trend line is up at 0.8921 and moving lower. That is near the level on the daily chart at 0.8925.
If the price is to start to rebound, getting back above that trend line (it is moving lower) is the minimum target to get back above.
On a break above that area, and traders will look toward the 38.2% at 0.89587 on the hourly chart above. Those hurdles would be needed to be broken to give buyers some hope the selling may be over.
