On the daily chart below for the USDCHF, we can see that the Swiss Franc has been strengthening a lot lately as the market keeps pricing in interest rates cuts from the Fed by the end of the year and there’s also some flight to safety as economic data recently deteriorated markedly.

In fact, going into a recession the CHF and the JPY JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and at the time of writing is the third most-traded currency in the world behind only the US dollar and euro.The JPY is used extensively as a reserve currency and is relied upon by forex traders as a safe haven currency.Originally implemented in 1871, the JPY has had a long history and has survived multiple world wars and other events. This was followed by the creation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 1882 and the full oversight of the JPY by The Japanese yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and at the time of writing is the third most-traded currency in the world behind only the US dollar and euro.The JPY is used extensively as a reserve currency and is relied upon by forex traders as a safe haven currency.Originally implemented in 1871, the JPY has had a long history and has survived multiple world wars and other events. This was followed by the creation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 1882 and the full oversight of the JPY by Read this Term generally strengthen against the USD. So, this trend lower may be attributed to both rate cuts expectations and recession fears. The daily moving averages are well crossed to the downside and will act as resistance for this downtrend. Recently, the pair broke below the February support, which is another sign that the sellers are well in control.

USDCHF Technical Analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the price recently spiked higher as the US NFP data beat once again expectations but the sellers leant on the major trendline and pushed the price back down.

The selling momentum then intensified as the NFIB Index data showed weakness under the hood with small businesses having a harder time getting credit and the hiring plans keep dropping fast, which should later translate in higher unemployment rate. Yesterday, the US CPI has also missed expectations for the headline figure and came in within forecasts for the Core measure. The market is increasingly confident that the May Fed hike will be the last one for this cycle.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the selling momentum is really strong. The hourly moving averages are acting as resistance for the current bearish trend, and we also have the minor trendline that will act as resistance in case the price pulls back.

The low is getting tested, and we may see it break if today’s US Jobless Claims miss again expectations. In case the data beats expectations, we should see the price rally and possibly even breaking above the trendline leading to a bigger pullback to the major trendline.