On the daily chart below for USDCHF, we can see that after the big selloff since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the USD/CHF pair found a bottom at the 0.8858 level and started to range. The moving averages have been quite reliable in defining the trends and we have just got a cross to the upside which may be an early signal of a change in trend.
The big divergence with the MACD might also be a sign that we could see a bigger pullback to the upside, but to confirm that, the price should break above the trendline first. The US Dollar has been strong recently due to better-than-expected data that might force the Fed to hike again in June. So, paying attention to the economic data will be crucial going forward.
USDCHF technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely the month-long range between the 0.8858 support and the 0.9000 resistance. The moving averages have been helpful in determining the short-term trend within the range and right now they are pointing to the upside. We will likely see the price reaching the 0.90 handle and that’s where the market will decide what to do next. The sellers should be leaning on that resistance for another fall towards the 0.8858 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a breakout to pile in more aggressively and extend the rally towards the 0.9118 resistance.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the market has been respecting the upward trendline. Every time the price fell to the trendline it bounced back strongly. This means that this trendline is really important for the market, so a break below it would be significant and most likely lead to a bigger selloff afterwards. Today the economic calendar is pretty empty, but the risk events to watch next are the US Jobless Claims tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell on Friday.
