Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting a bid as Trump said that he will charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US and will charge China an additional 10% tariff.
On the CHF side, the market continues to price a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and a total of 70 bps of easing by the end of 2025. Last week, SNB’s President Schlegel said that the central bank will use negative rates if necessary. The Swiss Franc sold off initially but eventually recouped all the losses.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF continues to display a rangebound price action around the recent highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline to position for a rally into the 0.9050 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to start targeting new lows.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see the upward spike on SNB’s Schlegel dovish comments which got faded as the new week began. We have a nice support around the 0.88 handle where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to target a break below the major trendline.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline acting as support. The buyers will likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a drop into the 0.88 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
