Fundamental Overview
Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed.
This morning, we saw some strong bids in the greenback due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as the flows there spilled over to other markets.
On the CHF side, nothing has changed as the market continues to price a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and a total of 70 bps of easing by the end of 2025.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF spiked back to the recent high around the 0.8915 level following the weak Eurozone PMIs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline to position for a rally into the 0.9050 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to start targeting new lows.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the upward spike this morning into the recent highs. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.9050 level next.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum into the high. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for a break above the recent highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we conclude the week with the US PMIs.
