Fundamental Overview
Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF couldn’t extend above the 0.89 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The price recently broke below it which could be a signal of a bigger pullback to follow.
The sellers are likely to pile in here to target a drop into the 0.88 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to position for a rally into new highs.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to position for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.
