The USDJPY trended higher into the European session, reaching a new high going back to April 2002 at 132.996 (just short of 133.00).
Looking at the 5 minutes chart above, the high near the natural resistance at 133.00 has led to some sideways/corrective action. Looking at the chart, the price moved down to test its 38.2% retracement at 132.557 area. It also was able to get back below the 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart above). T
The price has been trading above and below that 100 bar moving average and also just moved back to the 38.2% retracement area at 132.557. However what it hasn't been able to do is get below the 50% retracement of the days trading range at 132.421 nor the rising, 200 bar moving average currently at 132.51.
We all know that the USDJPY is at 20 year highs. The buyers are in control. The sellers would start to take back SOME control (this is for short term traders mind you), but only if they could move below these close targets on the shorter-term chart.
Not being able to get below the 200 bar moving average on the 5 minutes chart, or the midpoint of a day's trading range is not good news for the sellers.
Having said that, if those levels are broken, they need to remain broken. But what they do is give intraday sellers/traders something to lean against. That is the moving average levels become resistance instead of support (like they are now).
Until then, the sellers remain in firm control in the short-term, intermediate-term and the long term, and traders can expect higher levels. It's that simple.
It's not easy to pick a top in a trending market. However, if you do try, make sure you have a reason from a technical perspective so that that same reason i.e. falling below the 100 and 200 bar moving average is on the 5 minutes chart, give you an out if the trend continues.
The USDJPY is up some 670 points and 11 trading days. In the process, it moved above the April May highs near 131.342. Trends are fast directional tend to go further than traders expect.
