The USDJPY at the start of the US session needed to get to and through the 100-hour MA to increase. the bullish bias. It did just that after better data gave the buyers to go-ahead to move away from the lows.
Yesterday, the price moved to the lowest level going back to July, but moved back above the low from December 2023 at 140.248, and also stayed above that level at session lows today before moving higher helped by better retail sales, and later the industrial production and capacity utilization data.
The breaking of the 100-hour moving average will now be looked as support. Recall from last week, the price did move above its 100-hour moving average on a number of different occasions, but failed and rotated back to the downside. A move back below the 100-hour moving average now would disappoint the buyers and send a signal for a rotation back to the downside. Conversely, staying above the moving average opens the door for further upside probing.
That upside probing has the 200-hour moving average at 142.02 in its sights. That moving average is near the high of a swing area between 141.69 and 141.942 (see red numbered circles on the chart above).
A move above that level would then have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high at 142.485. Getting above that retracement level is required to show that the buyers are starting to take more control from the sellers. Absent that, and the corrective move off of the low yesterday is just a "plain vanilla variety" into retracement resistance
