The USDJPY moved lower today, coming off the boil a bit (see videos here and here).The drift lower started against a channel trend line against swing highs from this week (green numbered circles). The lows have inched below the lower channel trend line but stalled ahead of the rising 100-hour MA (blue line) currently at 144.19. The low for the day has reached 144.194.
What next?
We are heading into the close and it looks like the price will remain above the 100-hour moving average. That will leave next week open to either probe further to the downside on a break, OR bounce off the level and continue the bullish bias.
Fundamentally, the BOJ remains committed to expansionary policy. The Fed is likely to hike in July and potentially more in 2023,
However, if there is a shift in policy in Japan, or if the BOJ intervenes, there can be a flush back to the downside. .
