The USDJPY has moved up for the 3rd day in a row. That move saw the price move from a Monday low of 126.82 up to a high today of 129.608 (278 pips). In the process the price has extended above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the May 9 high at 129.434. The price has dipped back below that level in early NY trading.
The pair has been supported by rising yields this week with the 10 year moving moving from about 2.709% (low on Friday) to 2.88% today, but the yield has started to dip in early NY trading (currently at 2.839%) and that is giving the USDJPY some stall.
Looking at the hourly chart of the USDJPY, the pair's move to the upside tested a swing target area between 129.633 and 129.787 (see red numbered circles on the chart above).. The high price today stalled just short of that level at 129.608. Traders were leaning. The current price is back down to 129.29.
As mentioned above, the price decline has also move back below the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the May high to the May low. That level comes in at 129.434. Traders who are looking for the rotation to the downside will now look to that retracement level as a close resistance level intraday.
Drilling to the 5 minutes chart below, the rise today was helped in the the Asian session when the price decline stalled right at the 100 bar moving average. Holding that level gave the buyers something to lean against, and they trended the price to the upside in response.
More recently on the correction lower, the same 100 bar moving average has been broken at 129.372. Below sits the 200 bar moving average at 129.133. A move below the 200 bar moving average would increase the short-term negative bias if the price can stay below that moving average level.
On the topside, stay below the 100 bar moving average at 129.37 (and the 61.8% retracement on the hourly chart at 129.43), would give intraday sellers some confidence. A move above and the sellers start to lose the faith is the buyers start to take back the intraday bias.
