The Australian CPI data for the quarter will be released in the new trading day rotations of a move down to 1.0% from 1.4% last quarter. The year-on-year CPI level still remains comfortably above the inflation targets (at 5.4%).
Technically, the price of the AUDUSD has rebounded today after testing its 200-day moving average both yesterday and today. That moving average currently comes in at 0.6720.
The rebound to the upside has taken the price in between its 100-hour moving average currently at 0.67649, and its 200-hour moving average up at 0.67972 (call it 0.6800).
Both of those levels will be barometers for both the buyers and sellers through the CPI data.
- If the inflation data is higher than expectations, look for a break of the 200-hour moving average, and a move toward the 61.8% retracement of 0.68256 followed by a swing area between 0.6838 and 0.6840.
- Conversely, a lower-than-expected number would have traders pushing the price back below its 100-hour moving average at 0.67649. Break below that level with momentum and a retest of the 200-day moving average at 0.6720 would be the path of least resistance. Below that the 100-day moving average of 0.66884 would be targeted.
For now, with the pricing between the 200-hour moving average above in the 100-hour moving average below, the trading bias is neutral and waiting for the next shove.
