On the daily chart below for XTIUSD, we can see that after breaking out of the 3 month-long range, the sellers piled in aggressively dragging the price to the $64 price zone. This is where we got a bounce. The current rally may be due to the easing in fears around the banking sector and better than expected economic data.
In fact, the selloff was caused by the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank and the subsequent fear in the markets that this may be another financial crisis or at least tip the economy into a recession earlier than expected. The price has now pulled back to the red long period moving average and the broken support that now may turn into resistance. This is where the sellers will start to pile in again targeting a new low.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the price got rejected near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the daily red long period moving average. The price is still within the resistance zone and the buyers will need a break above the high and the 61.8% Fibonacci level to gain more conviction and start targeting the top of the previous range at $82. The moving averages on this timeframe are crossed to the upside and we may see the red long period moving average act as support for the buyers.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that on this timeframe the moving averages have crossed to the downside as the selling momentum dominates. The sellers will need a break below the $72 level to extend the move to the trendline and beyond.
The buyers, on the other hand, may lean on that same $72 level to start another rally. The only risk event today is the US Jobless Claims and given that the market wants to see confirmation that the recent events in the banking sector have slowed the economy, a miss in the data should be bearish for oil while a beat may be bullish.
