USD/CAD
On Friday, the Non Farm Payroll came in stronger than expected with jobs totalling 213K vs 195K and prior months numbers revised higher by 37K.
Hourly earnings came in softer at 0.2% vs 0.3% and 2.7% YoY vs 2.8%.
Also, the unemployment rate was up to 4% from 3.8% expected. Although the release was not terrible and will keep the Fed on their tightening trajectory it did weaken the USD in Friday's trading.
The Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates at it's meeting on Wednesday this week. On Friday the 22nd of June Canada's CPI and Core retail sales came in softer than expected. However, the BOC discounted this weak data as a one off on the 27th of June. Then on the 29th of June the GDP figure came in as a beat at +0.1% vs 0.0% expected . The latest data released on Friday was , on net, a tad soft with the Trade balance and employment data. However, the bottom line is that hike expectations are still on for Wednesday's 1500BST meeting.
So, I favour a USD/CAD short on a pull back entry around the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement region. Stops placed above NFP highs/pre-release price. Target 1.3000.
Risks to the trade : Any new Nafta news, Oil prices falling/Trump on twitter.
